This is the most depressing time of year to be in the Pacific Northwest. Officially, the length of the day will be 8 hours, 26 minutes, down from 15 hours, 59 minutes exactly six months ago. Seven and a half hours’ difference.. it’s like another day to work with. For comparison, my folks in Texas […]
When I was obsessing about the weather forecasts earlier this year, I read a lot on basic weather theory, hoping to better understand forecasting methodologies and, specifically, how all these intelligent people arrive at different results. Once this mystery was solved, I thought I’d tackle macroeconomic theory (ha ha!). I went to my library and
Weather Forecasting Read More »
Well, not really. But this week has had some mighty fine weather. I was pretty happy after Wednesday’s glorious ride into Seattle to scope out a project for Cascade Bicycle Club’s Bike to Work Month. Today was even better: I folded my bike, stashed it in the back of the plane, and took a quick
Spring is almost here! Read More »
Weather Rodeo v2 was my first attempt to construct a fitness function for the forecasters’ prediction accuracies. There were a couple of surprises: First, KIRO TV 7, winner of round one, fared the worst this time around because of the penalties for bad predictions, e.g., predicting sunny when it’s actually overcast with rain. The second
Weather Rodeo Results Read More »
Forecasts have been collected from our participants and sorted into three categories, events, sky conditions and temperature. Over the next few days, we’ll see who most accurately forecasts the weather from Thursday through Monday. The original rules have been amended in order to make this a bit easier to tabulate. See below for details. As
Weather Rodeo: Round 2 The forecasts Read More »
The length of winter was revealed this morning by Punxsutawney Phil. Outlook: six more weeks. It occurred to me that I should add him as one of my weather forecasting sources, but he’s doesn’t do five-day forecasts, especially in the Seattle area. The next Weather Rodeo will commence with forecasts rendered on Wednesday evening between
Happy Groundhog Day Read More »
KIRO TV7 is the winner of my Weather Forecast Rodeo, with two “most accurate” days and two “runner up” days. The Seattle Times is the runner up with two “winner” days.
And the winner is… Read More »
We had a little snow a couple of days ago and got more tonight — it actually seems to be sticking now. The upcoming forecast varies depending on what you want to believe. So, for the next few days, I’m going to track which of the various weather resources is most accurate. To keep these